海潮及滨海含水层地下水位变化的拟合与预测
首发时间:2005-11-24
摘要:海潮及受其影响的海岸带地下水位具有复杂的周期性变化和趋势性变化。本文建立趋势项与周期项之和的数学模型来描述水位的实际变化。用线性函数拟合其趋势项,用傅立叶级数拟合其周期项,用频谱分析和最小二乘法确定周期项函数。用实测水位和计算水位的误差平方和检验拟合结果,结果表明拟合效果好。所建立的数学模型可以用来对海潮和岸边地下水位变化进行预测,预测水位总体上能较好地反映了实测水位的变化特点,适宜于较短时间的预测。
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Fitting and prediction of the changes in tide and groundwater levels in coastal aquifers
Abstract:Complex periodic changes and trending changes can be observed in tide and groundwater levels affected by the tide in coastal aquifers. In this paper, mathematic models including a trending term and a periodic term are developed to describe the changes in the water levels. The trending term can be described by using a linear function, and the periodic term, by a Fourier series. The spectrum analysis method and the minimum square method are used to construct the Fourier series. Fitting is verified with the sum of the square of the abstraction of the observed and computed water levels until satisfactory fitting is obtained. The developed mathematical models can be employed to predict the changes in the tide and groundwater levels in coastal aquifers. The predictive water levels are thought to reflect the characteristics of the observed time series of the tide and groundwater levels near the coastal. The models are suitable in short-time prediction of water levels in the coastal aquifer.
Keywords: Coastal aquifer spectrum analysis fitting prediction
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