中国股票市场羊群行为的实证研究
首发时间:2006-06-29
摘要:本文在借鉴Christie和Huang (1995)提出的收益率的横截面标准离差(CSSD)和Chang et al.(2000)提出的横截面绝对离散误差(CSAD)两个衡量股价偏离度的指标的基础之上,通过建立一元二次非线性回归模型对中国股票市场是否存在羊群行为进行深入研究。对沪深两市的独立检验结果表明,在上海和深圳股票市场上都存在显著的羊群行为,而且上升市的羊群行为更为显著。通过比较分析使用CSAD和CSSD两指标的不同回归结果,发现前者对于股价分散度的衡量效果更好。与美国、香港、日本等成熟的股票市场相比,中国股票市场具有更大的系统风险,系统风险在总风险中占的比例甚至达到了美国市场的6倍,这与同是新兴市场的韩国、台湾股票市场的情况比较接近。
关键词: 羊群行为 资本资产定价模型 横截面绝对离散误差 收益率的横截面标准离差
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An empirical study of herd behavior in china’s equity markets
Abstract:Based on the two equity return dispersion measurements CSSD and CSAD which was presented by Christie and Huang (1995) and Chang et al.(2000),this paper examines the presence of head behavior in Shanghai and Shenzhen equity markets by establishing a non linear model. It concludes that herding in Shanghai and Shenzhen equity market is significant in the individual empirical test of Shanghai and Shenzhen equity markets, and the evidence of herd behavior is more significant in up markets than the whole markets, while there is no evidence of herding in down markets. By comparing the two empirical test using CSAD and CSSD, it can be found that CSAD is a better measurement in measuring the dispersion of equity return. By analyzing the relationship between systematic risk and herd behavior it can be concluded that the systematic risk of china’s equity market is higher than that of America and Japan markets. The proportion of the total risk which the systematic risk takes in china’s market is six times than American market but it is similar with the other emerging markets like South Korea and Taiwan.
Keywords: Herd behavior Capital asset pricing model Cross-sectional absolute deviation(CSAD) Cross sectional standard deviation of returns(CSSD)
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No.7382737671151572****
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