基于“前景理论”的路径选择行为建模及实例分析
首发时间:2006-08-22
摘要:出行者路径选择行为的建模对于城市交通系统分析具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。笔者首先回顾了传统的路径选择模型的理论基础——“期望效用理论”的不足;接着在“前景理论”的框架下对一天内单次出行的路径选择行为进行了理论建模: 确定了出行者的主观感知费用函数,并定义了出行过程中的参照点。最后给出了基于“前景理论”的路径选择模型与基于“期望效用理论”的路径选择模型的实例对比分析,结果证明基于“前景理论”的路径选择模型更加接近现实。
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A Prospect Theory-Based Traveler Route Choice Model and Case Study
Abstract:It’s very important to model traveler’s route choice behavior when analyzing the transportation system. This paper first reviews the disadvantages of Expected Utility Theory which underlies most of the existing route choice models. Then within the framework of Prospect theory, the theoretic model of traveler’s route choice behavior within a day is given: we analyze the traveler’s subjective perception of trip cost as well as giving the definition of “Reference point” of traveler’s decision. At last, the Prospect Theory-Based model and Expected Utility Theory-Based model is contrasted by a case study, which shows Prospect Theory could explain traveler’s route choice behavior more explicitly.
Keywords: Prospect Theory, Expected Utility Theory, Route choice behavior, Case study
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