转移函数模型及其在我国粮食产量预测中的应用研究
首发时间:2006-10-24
摘要:转移函数模型是一类多变量时间序列模型,它在表达系统动态影响机制方面有着独到的优势。本文将转移函数模型应用于我国粮食产量的预测,并且与ARIMA模型进行了比较分析,说明了回归项的引入有利于提高模型的拟合效果。
关键词: 转移函数 ARIMA模型 粮食产量预测
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The Application Study in Grain Output Prediction of the Transfer Function Model
Abstract:The transfer function model is a kind of multivariate time series model which has much advantage in expressing dynamic mechanism of a system. In this paper we applied the method of transfer function model built a model of our country’s grain output, and compared with the ARIMA Models. The results show that the transfer function Model has obtained good forecast results.
Keywords: Transfer function ARIMAX Model Grain Output Prediction
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No.8915827721161683****
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