Chinese Agricultural Natural Risks and Real Background of Uncertainty
首发时间:2008-02-27
Abstract:The agriculture is a typical risk industry. The agricultural risk can be summed up two big kinds roughly. One involves the agricultural production process, which is called the natural risk; the other mainly refers to agricultural management process, which is called the market risk. To the entire agricultural development, other environmental factors or the exogenous factors of agricultural, like political system, law, policy and social factor and so on, possibly has profound influence to the agricultural development. However, this article supposes that our research central on agricultural natural risk system is in using specific historical data to analyzing environmental disasters. Those include waterlogged, drought, hailstorm, winterkilling, typhoon, and as well as plant disease and insect, grass evil, rodents harm. Under background of uncertainty, through some kind of statistics analysis, in a macro-aspect we discussed the origin of agricultural production risks. Maybe we possible find some rules to fight with huge natural disasters, there are four kind main disasters waterlogged, drought, hailstorm, and rat damage after the analysis that need to pay close attention in agricultural realm currently.
keywords: Risk identification Natural disaster Disaster formed rate Disaster deduction rate Tendency
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Chinese Agricultural Natural Risks and Real Background of Uncertainty
摘要:The agriculture is a typical risk industry. The agricultural risk can be summed up two big kinds roughly. One involves the agricultural production process, which is called the natural risk; the other mainly refers to agricultural management process, which is called the market risk. To the entire agricultural development, other environmental factors or the exogenous factors of agricultural, like political system, law, policy and social factor and so on, possibly has profound influence to the agricultural development. However, this article supposes that our research central on agricultural natural risk system is in using specific historical data to analyzing environmental disasters. Those include waterlogged, drought, hailstorm, winterkilling, typhoon, and as well as plant disease and insect, grass evil, rodents harm. Under background of uncertainty, through some kind of statistics analysis, in a macro-aspect we discussed the origin of agricultural production risks. Maybe we possible find some rules to fight with huge natural disasters, there are four kind main disasters waterlogged, drought, hailstorm, and rat damage after the analysis that need to pay close attention in agricultural realm currently.
关键词: Risk identification; Natural disaster; Disaster formed rate; Disaster deduction rate; Tendency
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No.1886178814120407****
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