电信基础设施与经济增长:基于我国1978-2006省级面板数据的研究
首发时间:2008-09-16
摘要:本文基于我国东部和中、西部地区省级面板数据,应用面板单位根检验、面板协整分析及误差修正模型,对两大地区电信基础设施与经济增长的长短期关系进行了比较研究。结论显示:我国东部地区和中、西部地区的电信基础设施的长期产出弹性接近,大概在0.6左右。但是,二者的关系在东部地区表现为相互的因果关系,而西部地区则是经济增长为因,电信基础设施为果。最后,作者认为这种差异源于电信基础设施对经济增长的“门槛效应”。因此,国家应加大对中、西部地区电信基础设施建设的战略性投入,不断降低电信服务价格,促进电信的普遍服务。
关键词: 电信基础设施 经济增长 面板协整 Granger因果关系
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Telecommunication Infrastructure and Economic growth:A Study Based on the Provincal Panel Data from 1978—2006
Abstract:Base on the unit root tests、cointegration tests and error correction models in panel data, this paper aims to identify the long term and short term relations between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in eastern and middle or western region of China.The empirical results show that the telecommunication infrastructure elasticity of output in the long term is approxmate to 0.6 in eastern and middle or western region of China. There is a unidirectional granger causality from economic growth to telecommunication infrastructure in middle or western region of China .However, a bi-directiona granger causality are found in eastern region. This implies that once a critical mass of telecommunication infrastructure is present,their causal link is significant.So the government should increase telecommunication infrastructure invesement in middle and western region of China ,and decrease the price of telecommunication service.
Keywords: telecommunication infrastructure economic growth panel cointergration granger causatity
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No.2406131549812215****
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