西北少数民族地区生态足迹的动态分析——以新疆自治区为例
首发时间:2008-09-23
摘要:文章采用生态足迹分析方法,对新疆1985-2005年间的生态足迹及其结构和生态承载力进行分析,并对各类生物生产性土地足迹与人均GDP进行了相关性分析,基于此,分析了经济增长与环境压力关系的发展态势,结果表明:(1)全疆人均生态足迹需求从1985年的1.6613hm2上升到2005年的4.6445hm2,人均生态承载力由1.5418hm2降低到1.5060hm2,人均生态赤字从0.1195hm2增加到了3.1385hm2,赤字增长了25倍,表明新疆的可持续发展面临严峻考验;(2)研究期间生态足迹构成发生了变化:耕地、草地、化石燃料用地生态足迹比例表现为下降,林地、水域、建筑用地需求比例表现为上升,然而,化石燃料用地需求比例仍然处于最高位;(3)与人均GDP的相关系数最高的生物生产性土地足迹依次为人均草地足迹、人均化石燃料足迹和人均耕地足迹,表明新疆经济增长主要依靠畜牧业、重化工行业和种植业;(4)新疆地区的经济增长方式是环境胁迫型的。在21年间,随着经济的发展,生态足迹和生态赤字表现持续上升的趋势,经济增长是以高环境压力为特征,经济发展正在远离可持续发展方向。
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Dynamic Analysis of the Ecological Footprint of Northwest Ethnic Minority Region: A Case Study on Xinjiang
Abstract:In this paper, the theories and the calculation methods of ecological footprints are used to analyze the ecological footprint, its structure and ecological capacity of Xinjiang during 1985-2005.And then a model is established to analyze the relationship between every kind of productive and ecological land area and GDP per capita. Based on this, the author analyzes the development trend of the relationship between economic growth and environmental pressures. The results showed that: 1)The per capita ecological footprint of Xinjiang is constantly increasing, rising from 1.6613 hm2 in 1998 to 4.6445 hm2 in 2005, but the per capita ecological capacity is decreasing. So the ecological deficit increased year by year. The deficit of 2005 was 25 times that of 1983; 2)During the study period, the ecological footprint structure has changed. The proportion of the demands for farm land, grassland and fossil energy land decreased; 3)Xinjiang’s economic development relies mainly on animal husbandry, heavy chemical industry and agriculture; 4)Xinjiang’s economic growth mode is environmentally threatening. The development of Xinjiang is pushed into an unsustainable state.
Keywords: ecological footprint system status correlation analysis environmentally threatening Xinjiang.
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No.2428431903512221****
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西北少数民族地区生态足迹的动态分析——以新疆自治区为例
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