The ordinal modeling analysis of multi-stage reliability growth with instant and delayed fix modes

• 1、College of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, National Univ. of Defense Technology

Abstract：In the multi-stage reliability growth test with instant and delayed fix modes, the failure times can be assumed to follow the Weibull processes with different parameters at different stages. With only a few field samples，the traditional reliability evaluation methods meet some difficulties. Based on the estimations of stages’ shape parameters, an ordinal constraint relationship is constructed on the failure intensities at different stages’ truncated times, thus to obtain the expectation and upper limit of the failure intensity at the last stage’s truncated time with Bayesian method combining the prior information. The results make use of the previous stages’ data, show better performance than the classic method which only considers the single stage data, and can be used to implement the synthetic evaluation of multi-stage reliability growth test.

Keywords： reliability growth multi-stage test ordinal modeling Bayesian analysis