多阶段含延缓纠正可靠性增长的Bayes综合评定
首发时间:2009-01-15
摘要:在多阶段含延缓纠正的可靠性增长试验中,各个阶段内的失效数据可以看作参数不同的Weibull过程。针对单个阶段内的Weibull过程,通过合理选择验前分布形式及其参数,获得了简洁的验后分布形式,简化了Bayes分析过程。在多阶段试验分析中,利用增长因子将前一阶段的验后信息转化为后一阶段的验前信息,并对给定增长因子条件下的转换准则进行了仔细的分析,给出了后一阶段变量的分布参数的确定方法。在上述分析的基础上,进一步提出了针对多阶段含延缓纠正的可靠性增长试验的新的Bayes综合评估程序和算法体系。最终的示例显示了上述方法的有效性和灵活性。
关键词: 可靠性增长 贝叶斯分析 增长因子 多阶段试验 威布尔过程
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The Bayesian synthetic evaluation of multi-Stag reliability growth with instant & delayed fix modes
Abstract:In the multi-stage reliability growth tests with instant & delayed fix modes, the failure processes can be assumed to follow Weibull processes with different parameters at different stages. For the Weibull process within a stage, by proper selection of prior distribution form and parameters, a concise posterior distribution form is obtained, thus to simplify the Bayesian analysis. In the multi-stage tests, the improvement factor is used to convert the posterior information of one stage to the prior information of the subsequent stage. The conversion criterion is carefully analyzed, so to determine the distribution parameters of the subsequent stage’s variable reasonably. Based on the mentioned results, a new synthetic Bayesian evaluation program and algorithm framework is put forward to evaluate the multi-stage reliability growth tests with instant & delayed fix modes. The example shows the feasibility and flexibility of this method.
Keywords: Reliability Growth Bayesian Analysis Improvement Factor Multi-Stage Test Weibull Process
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