Temperature subarea change in the future under the warming scenarios in China

• 1、Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Abstract：Using the outputs of thirteen IPCC AR4 CGCMS under SRES A2 condition and the daily mean temperature data from 548 stations for the period 1961-1990 in China ,evaluated the division of the temperature of china in the future. The mean temperature division in west of China almost retains the same for the period of 1961-1990a、2021-2050a and 2071- 2097a,however,in east of china,it represents remarkable transformation.For the period of 1961-1990a, the west of China can be divided into southern and northern districts by North China division belt.For the period of 2021-2050a,the North China division belt moves northward,meanwhile,another division belt appears to the north of Guangdong and Guangxi province, so in this period ,the east of China can be divided into three districts--northeast, north and central,south of China. For the period of 2071-2097a,the North China division belt disappears,the south China division belt moves northward to Changjiang River, the west of China can be divided into southern and northern districts.By comparing the different division of China for these three periods,found the main reason of the difference is the disagreement between the variability of the mean temperature data and the temperature range of warming up.

Keywords： Air temperature future scenarios subarea change