期货市场发展对我国经济增长作用的实证研究
首发时间:2009-04-07
摘要:随着金融不断地发展,其对经济增长的影响也越来越明显。期货市场作为金融市场的重要组成部分,其对经济发展的影响也日益显著。就美国经济发展而言,期货行业的作用功不可没。由于我国期货市场起步晚,发展还不成熟,与发达国家仍存在一定差距,那么现阶段我国的期货市场是否对经济发展起到了积极作用?因而本文在前人研究成果的基础上,结合协整检验等数理分析方法,通过建立1999年-2008年38个季度GDP和全国期货市场季度成交量之间的回归模型对我国期货市场与经济发展关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,经济增长与全国期货成交量具有协整关系,尽管全国期货交易量是经济增长的格兰杰原因,但是反之并不成立。
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Research on the Impact of Futures Market Development on Chinese Economic Growth
Abstract:With the increasing development of finance, it has obviously impact on the economic growth. As an important part of finance markets, futures market has been influencing the economic growth. As for United States, futures industry plays key role in America economic development. Due to the immature of China’s futures market, far away form developed countries, whether it has a positive on the economy. On the basis of the previous researches, with the 38 quarters data of GDP and futures market trade volume between 1999 and 2008, this paper presents the long-term equilibrium relation between futures market and the economic growth of China through the usage of mathematic analysis such as co-integration analysis. The results show that trades cause economic growth, but the opposite is not true.
Keywords: futures market economic growth co-integration test
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No.3110433219312390****
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