加权法在建立灰色模型GM(1,1)中的理论分析和实际应用
首发时间:2009-04-14
摘要:目的:为了减小灰色模型的计算残差,提高灰色模型的计算精度。方法:利用加权平均的办法对累加生成数列进行整理并作数学分析,可以获得不同权数灰色模型的时间函数,以拟合残差平方和最小为标准对时间函数进行优化。结果:加权法与传统方法相比,可以有效地减小残差平方和,显著地提高拟合精度。结论:加权模型可以应用于林业产业总产值的趋势预测。
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Theory analysis and practical application of weighted method in establishing grey model GM(1,1)
Abstract:For letting up the calculated error of the Gray model, Improve the calculation accuracy of the gray model. Method: make use of the weighted average to proceed the mathematical analysis simulate to the accumulated generating an ordered of numbers, so it can acquire the gray model time function of the different, To the smallest residual sum of squares as the standard, to optimize the time function.Result: Compared with traditional method, the new one can let up the error sum of squares, clearly raise model accuracy.Conclusion: The weightd model may application in tendency forecast of the viral hepatitis incidence rate.
Keywords: Gray model modeling method weighted average actual application
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