基于曲线拟合的中国人口增长预测和评价
首发时间:2009-05-31
摘要:中国是一个人口大国,人口问题始终是制约我国发展的关键因素之一。老龄化进程加速、出生人口性别比持续升高,以及乡村人口城镇化等因素正在广泛而深刻的影响着人类社会生活的各个方面。本文讨论了人口数目的预测问题,即通过我国的具体的实际情况,通过曲线拟合建立适当的人口模型,利用计算机实现迭代,对我国短期和中长期的人口作出预测,并做出定量的综合评价。
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The China-based Curve fitting prediction and evaluation of population growth
Abstract:China is a country with a large population, the population problem constraining the development of our country has always been one of the key factors. Accelerate the aging process, the population sex ratio at birth continues to rise, as well as urbanization of rural population and other factors are broad and proof- und impact on human society in all aspects of life. This article discusses the issue of population project- tions, that is, through concrete and practical in our country through the establishment of an appropriate curve fitting the population model, using computer iteration, on China\
Keywords: The aging of the population Population growth Curve fitting Iterative method
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No.3267612092912437****
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