改进灰色神经网络模型在汽车保有量预测中的应用
首发时间:2009-06-01
摘要:灰色神经网络组合预测在汽车保有量预测中有广泛的应用,但传统灰色神经网络组合预测不能预测较远目标且没有考虑不同时刻两种方法预测精度的不同。本文将动态灰色预测和IOWHA算子相结合,提出了以误差平方和为准则的基于IOWHA算子的动态灰色神经网络预测,该预测方法给出了两种单项预测权系数确定的数学规划方法。实证分析表明,该预测方法是合理有效的,与传统的预测方法相比,提高了预测精度,具有较好的实用价值。
关键词: IOWHA算子 动态灰色预测 保有量预测 神经网络预测
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Gray neural network model to improve the cars Forecast
Abstract:Gray neural network forecast combination forecast of cars in a wide range of applications, but the combination of the traditional gray neural network can not predict the forecast does not take away the goal and the two methods at different moments of the different prediction accuracy. In this paper, the gray prediction and dynamic operator IOWHA combined to put forward the principle of the error sum of squares operator-based dynamic IOWHA gray neural network prediction, the prediction method is given two weights of the individual forecasts to determine the mathematical programming method. Empirical analysis shows that the prediction method is reasonable and effective, with the traditional prediction methods, to improve the prediction accuracy has good practical value.
Keywords: IOWHA operator dynamic gray forecast maintain forecasts neural network prediction
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