分形理论在煤炭产量预测中的应用研究
首发时间:2009-09-27
摘要:本文应用基于分形理论的研究方法,从非线性的角度,建立变维分形模型,再根据煤历史和实测资料,对煤炭产量进行了预测。研究得出:最大相对误差为-7.56%,平均相对误差为-3.64%,在误差允许范围内,结果令人满意。并利用R/S分析的原理和方法,对预测模型进行了验证。
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Fractal Theory in the coal production forecast of the Applied Research
Abstract:In this paper, based on fractal theory, research methods, from the non-linear perspective, the establishment of trans-dimensional fractal model, then according to history and the measured data of coal, coal production was predicted. Emerging from the study: the maximum relative error of -7.56%, the average relative error is -3.64% in the error within the allowable range, with satisfactory results. And using R / S analysis of the principles and methods of prediction model is validated.
Keywords: Fractal theory R/S analysis coal production Forecast
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No.3552449150412540****
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