基于区制转换模型的上海房地产泡沫类型实证检验
首发时间:2010-08-26
摘要:本文运用van Norden(1996)提出的泡沫检验方法对上海市住宅市场泡沫类型进行了实证检验。结果发现上海市住宅市场价格明显异于经济基本面,存在着泡沫,但这种泡沫不是由于投资者非理性跟风所导致的非理性泡沫,而是具有时涨时消,且呈现出一种扩张或收缩概率随泡沫大小而变的特征,也就是区制转换型泡沫。这是由人们对未来住宅投资收益的理性预期引发,是一种理性泡沫。
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A empirical of Shanghai real estate bubble type based on the RS model
Abstract:The method used by van Norden (1996) is used in the passage to test the type of Shanghai housing bubble. The results showed that Shanghai housing price significantly different from economic fundamentals foam, but it is not due to the foam which caused by the irrational investors wind, but the irrational bubble rising, and when a probability of expanding or contracting with foam size and characteristics, namely regime switching type foam. This is caused by the future housing investment by people of the rational anticipated revenue, and it is a kind of rational bubble.
Keywords: irrational foam RS foam zhong index
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No.4382718537771128****
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