高速公路道路行程时间预测模型
首发时间:2010-08-30
摘要:道路行程时间预测模型的建立是高速公路紧急救援和交通诱导的一项关键内容。本文首先分析了路段交通事故对高速公路交通流的影响,以交通波理论为基础给出了确定交通事故影响范围的算法。在此基础上,利用实测的交通流数据,基于卡尔曼滤波理论,预测若干个时段后的事故影响范围内路段的行程时间,进而给出了全路网的路径行程时间的预测。最后利用实测数据进行仿真,仿真结果表明该模型有较高的预测精度。
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A Travel Time Estimation Model for Freeways
Abstract:Travel time estimation is an important aspect for the FERS and the traffic guidance system .First, this paper analyzes the impacts of traffic accidents to highway traffic flow and establishes the method of determining traffic accident impact areas based on traffic wave theories. On this basis, using traffic flow data, travel time predictions of the road which in accident impact areas will be given, and then, predictions of the whole road-network travel time will be present. Finally, simulation results of the measured data show that the model has high prediction accuracy.
Keywords: highway, travel time, influence area, traffic wave, Kalman filtering theory
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No.4382730497911128****
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