网络用户行为的混沌特性分析及预测
首发时间:2011-11-24
摘要:随着信息技术的飞速发展,网络所承载的业务类型也越来越多并不断出现出新的特点,与此同时网络用户的网上行为也呈现出了多样化的特点。这对传统的网络运营维护模式提出了严峻的挑战。对网络用户行为的分析和预测可以进行有针对性的业务开发和营销,可以支撑商业规划和市场决策等。本文首先简要阐述了网络用户行为数据的获取方式以及量化方法,随后根据混沌理论对网络用户行为数据进行了分析,证明了网络用户行为具有混沌特性。面对具有混沌特性的网络用户行为,本文最后给出了一种基于回声状态网络的网络用户行为预测方法,仿真实验表明该方法具有较好的预测效果。
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The chaotic property of network user behavior and its prediction
Abstract:With the rapid development of information technology, the services carried by networks are constantly increasing and presenting lots of new features. Meanwhile, the online behavior of network users also shows diverse characteristics. Hence, the traditional vulgar network with the operation and maintenance mode is confronted with a more severe challenge. Analysis and prediction of network user behavior will be conductive to the business planning or decision-marking. In this paper, the methods, which obtain and quantize the network user behavior, are briefly described. Then, network user behavior with chaotic characteristics is proved based on the chaos theory. Finally, a behavior prediction algorithm based on echo state network is proposed and applied to the network user behavior prediction, and the experimental results show that this algorithm has better prediction performance.
Keywords: Network user behavior Chaos Echo state network Time series prediction
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