基于系统动力学的农业机械化促进政策效果评价 --以吉林省为例
首发时间:2011-12-08
摘要:运用定量评价的方法对政策效果进行评价,在一定程度上可以提高操作的规范性、科学性和评价结论的可信性。本文在对农业机械化系统进行分析的基础上,构建了农业机械化促进政策效果评价的系统动力学仿生模型。借助Vensim-PLE专用软件,选择吉林省为样本进行了实证分析,根据模型的运行结果与吉林省农机化实际发展水平的对照,对模型的有效性和灵敏度进行了检验。最后,结合当前农业机械化制度安排的内容和促进政策的特点,对系统输出的农业机械化政策效果评价结果进行了耦合分析。
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Evaluation on the effectiveness of Agricultural Mechanization Policies based on System Dynamics Taking Jilin Province as an example
Abstract:By using the quantitative methodology to evaluate the performance of polices, we can enhance the standard and science level of operations and reliability of evaluation conclusions. Based on the analysis of agricultural mechanization system, the system dynamics simulation model in policies effectiveness evaluation on agricultural mechanization is constructed in this paper. By using Vensim-PLE specific software, the empirical analysis was proposed with samples in Jilin province. Comparing the running results to real development level in agricultural mechanization in Jilin Province, we tested the efficiency and sensitiveness of the SD model. At last, combined with the content of current institutions arrangement and boosting policies, we analyzed the policies effectiveness of agricultural mechanization which was the output of SD system.
Keywords: agricultural mechanization system dynamics (SD) policy effectiveness
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