基于动态风险的飓风应急疏散策略与仿真
首发时间:2012-11-21
摘要:飓风具有破坏性和不可控性,提前进行应急疏散是降低飓风危害的有效措施。本文基于应急疏散的流程,分析了飓风灾害的特点,着重讨论了飓风灾害风险在危害程度和危害区域两个方面的动态变化特征,提出了更符合实际的风险动态变化的飓风应急疏散问题。考虑飓风级别、考察点与飓风中心距离,给出了特定点的风险度量方法,并进一步提出了基于单位风险降幅最大的应急疏散策略,设计了仿真流程和飓风疏散算例生成办法,通过仿真对疏散策略进行了验证。结果表明,该策略能根据飓风灾害的实际情况给出更安全、更快捷的疏散路径。
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Simulation of Hurricane Emergency Evacuation Strategy based on the Dynamic Risk
Abstract:Hurricane is destructive and uncontrollable. It is an effective way to reduce the damage that takes emergency evacuation before the hurricane arrives. This paper analyzed the hurricane evacuation process, and focused on the dynamic characteristics of hurricane disaster risk. Based on the hurricane center and hurricane levels, we proposed the risk measurement method for a given point. Furthermore, we presented the emergency evacuation strategy based on the largest decline of unit risk, and designed simulation process and evacuation examples to verify the effectiveness of the evacuation strategy.
Keywords: kemergency evacuation hurricane dynamic risk risk decline traffic simulation
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