利用Monte-Carlo方法确定CREAM方法中的控制模式
首发时间:2012-12-13
摘要:论文针对CREAM方法中控制模式确定过程中的不确定性问题,提出一种利用Monte-Carlo方法来确定控制模式的方法。详细讨论分析了CPC状态确定过程中的不确定性因素,并给出了不确定性的表达方式,在此基础上,设计了控制模式确定的Monte-Carlo仿真流程。针对CPC状态完全确定、CPC状态部分确定、CPC状态完全未知和CPC状态存在明确概率分布这4种情况,利用该算法计算了控制模式的发生概率。计算结果表明,该算法的计算结果合理,且能够与CREAM基本法保持一致。最后,给出了人为差错概率区间的计算公式。
关键词: 系统工程 人因可靠性 Monte-Carlo 控制模式 人为差错概率
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Determination of Control Modes in CREAM by using Monte-Carlo
Abstract:In this paper, an approach for determinating the control modes in CREAM which is a substitute for the existing deterministic method is presented. The new approach is based on Monte-Carlo method. This paper discusses the factors by which the uncertainties of the common performance conditions (CPCs) is caused in details, and presents one probabilistic version of the uncertainties. The procedure for determinating control modes by using Monte-Carlo method is described. And the control modes under four generic contexts are determined by this procedure. Under the first context, the CPC states are determined completely. And under the second one, the CPC states are determined partially. The third context is unknown compleletely, and the CPCs states probablity distributions under the fourth context are known. The results are rational and consistent with CREAM. Finally, the formula for calculating human error probability interval is presented.
Keywords: Systems engineering Human reliability Monte-Carlo Control Mode Human error probability
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