基于风险分析的航天工程项目方案设计-资源分配
首发时间:2013-01-31
摘要:航天工程项目中,为使风险最小化,方案设计时需要综合考虑工程技术方案和实施方案。在资源约束条件下,技术方案与实施方案间的相互影响更为复杂,有关工程技术方案的选择、实施方案的资源分配决策需要定量化工具的支持。本文构建了一个双层规划模型描述该设计-分配问题。该模型考虑了设计人员和管理人员的不同风险偏好,能够优化用于可靠性增长和管理风险降低的资源分配,并且确定风险损失最低的技术方案。由于该模型属于混合整数规划模型,本文设计了一种拉格朗日松弛算法。算例结果验证了求解算法的可靠性。
关键词: 风险分析 双层规划模型 设计 资源分配 航天工程项目
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SYSTEM DESIGN AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION OF SPACE PROJECT BASED ON RISK ANALYSIS
Abstract:In order to minimize the risk, it is needed to integrate the system design and execution plan in space project. Under the constrain of resources, the relationship between system design and execution plan is more complex, and a quantitative model is required to assist the system design and resource allocation. This paper proposes a bilevel program model to solve the joint desigan-allocation problem which considering the different risk preference of designer and manager. The model can optimize the resource allocation which used to enchance the reliablility and reduce the risk, and make decision about system design whose risk is minimized. Because the model is a Mixed-Integrated programming, a Lagrangean relaxation algorithm is proposed. An number example verifies the model and the algorithm.
Keywords: Risk Analysis Bilevel Programming Design Resource Allocation Space Project
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