Using CA-Markov Models to Simulate the Land-use Changes in Pudong New Area, Shanghai City
首发时间:2014-01-22
Abstract:In recent years, much attention has been paid to land-use change simulations for the sake of better displaying the mechanism of land-use change and making out relevant policies. While CA-Markov model is a robust approach in spatial and temporal dynamic modeling of land use/cover changes because geographic information system (GIS) and remote-sensing data can be efficiently incorporated. In this paper, geographical environment factors as well as social-economic factors are combined with land-use current situation data over the past one decade to simulate the future land use patterns of Pudong New Area, Shanghai city. As a newly well-developed district in Shanghai, Pudong New Area is experiencing an increase in both population and built-up areas, which intensify the contradictions of all kinds of land use. CA-Markov model is introduced to simulate the land use changes of the city. After determined the parameter, transformation rules and correcting process of the model, it is applied to the simulation and prediction of Pudong New Area. The good simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of our model, which can reflect the characteristics of the Land use Policy in past years, and guarantee appropriate deployment of the urban land. Moreover, we further used the established CA-Markov model to simulate the land use situation in 2012 and 2018, and therefore provide a reference and solution to sustainable development in the study area.
keywords: GIS CA-Markov Land use Shanghai
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基于CA-Markov模型的城市土地利用变化模拟--以上海浦东新区为例
摘要:近年来,因缺乏对土地利用变化机制的理解而对土地利用变化的计算机模拟高度关注。CA-Markov模型源于对GIS和遥感数据的协同能力而具有在空间上和时间上的对土地利用/覆被变化的模拟能力。因此本文引入CA-markov模型,把地理环境因子、社会经济因子和土地利用现状数据集成来模拟未来一段时间内的土地利用类型的变化。浦东新区作为上海新近发展的重要区域,无论在人口还是建成区都经历着巨大的变化,故本研究以浦东新区为例,在拟定了模型参数、转换规则和模型优化过程以后,将模型应用于浦东新区的土地利用类型的模拟,良好的模拟结果验证了模型的有效性,并将模型应用于2012年和未来的2018年的土地利用模拟。所得模拟结果将对此区域的土地利用可持续发展提供思想上的参考和方法上的借鉴。
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No.4582182912304138****
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基于CA-Markov模型的城市土地利用变化模拟--以上海浦东新区为例
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