Liquefaction Hazard Zonation based on a Probabilistic Model of Lateral Spread Exceeding a Pre-defined Threshold
首发时间:2014-03-03
Abstract:Lateral spreads have been extensively found near waterfronts after major earthquakes as a consequence of liquefied saturated sandy soils, and they posed significant detrimental effects on widely-spreading urban lifelines. This paper proposes a displacement-based procedure for liquefaction hazard zonation by using a newly-developed probabilistic model of liquefaction-induced lateral displacements exceeding a pre-defined threshold. The probabilistic function was formulated from a regression analysis on case histories of liquefaction by employing probit modeling. The procedure for generating the liquefaction hazard map with this proposed model was demonstrated through a selected case study. The comparison between the predicted probability and the field measurements indicates that the model can provide reasonable prediction particularly in cases of large deformations. The displacement-based procedure is promising, providing probability map that highlights the regions where relatively large deformations have been observed.
keywords: geotechnical engineering liquefaction lateral spread probit model hazard mapping
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基于液化变形超越概率模型的液化灾害区划初探
摘要:地震所引起的液化侧向变形严重违威胁着城市生命线工程的安全。基于新近提出的液化侧向变形超越概率模型,本文提出了一种新的基于液化变形估计的液化灾害区划方法。采用Probit建模方法,通过现场液化调查数据的回归分析建立液化变形超越概率模型。通过实际案例,描述了基于该模型的液化灾害区划方法,并将预测结果与现场实测结果进行了对比。结果表明液化侧向变形超越概率模型尤其适用于大变形的概率预测,基于该模型的液化灾害区划方法能够识别大液化变形区域。
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No.4586410958938139****
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