山西省县域粮食生产时空格局及影响因子实证分析
首发时间:2014-03-17
摘要:利用变异系数、空间常系数回归、ESDA-GWR等方法对山西省县域粮食生产时空格局研究发现:(1)山西省县域粮食生产同时存在空间自相关与空间非均衡性特征;(2)1990~2001年间,粮食生产区域差异与空间相关性变化大,粮食生产空间集聚较强,2002~2011年间,粮食生产变异系数与空间自相关下降且变化稳定,粮食生产空间集聚存在的同时伴有空间异质性;(3)县域粮食生产关联模式中以"HH"、"LL"两类模式为主,集中在晋西南与西北地区,且地域随时间变化较稳定,粮食生产空间溢出效应不明显。就粮食生产格局影响因子而言,粮食单产、农业劳动力投入及基期粮食生产是影响山西省县域粮食生产的最显著要素,机械化不显著,劳动力依赖显著。粮食单产、农业劳动力、基期粮食生产、人均GDP等要素作用于县域粮食生产异质性显著,除基期粮食生产要素外,其余大都表现为空间正负效应。需要因地制宜规划粮食生产,增强各区域影响因子与粮食生产的匹配度。
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A Case Study on Space-Time Pattern and Impact Factors of food production of Shanxi Province at County Level
Abstract:Based on the methods of Cv index, spatial constant coefficient regression and ESDA-GWR, this paper gives an in-depth analysis of space-time patterns of food production in Shanxi province at county level. The results show that, first, food production of Shanxi province at county level had the phenomenon of spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration. Second, the extent of spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration of food production changed a lot from 1990 to 2001. The variable coefficient and spatial autocorrelation coefficient of food production commenced to decline from 2002 to 2011, but it showed stably. The overall distribution pattern appeared to the features of agglomeration effect and spatial heterogeneity. Third, local significant spatial correlation patterns of food production at county level had two major types which included "HH" and "LL", which mainly located in the northwest and southwest of Shanxi province and remained relatively stable, the overflow effect of food production was not obvious. Through analyzing the impact factors of food production, on one hand, we found grain output, agriculture labor and previous food production was the most significant factors to affect food production, the factor of agriculture mechanization was not significant and food production relied on the factor of labor deeply. On the other hand, we found these factors which included grain output, agriculture labor, previous food production and per capita GDP had the heterogeneity effect. Except the factor of previous food production, other factors mostly appeared to spatial positive or negative effects on food production in Shanxi province at county level. It needs to plan food production depend on local condition, and enhance the regional coordination for impact factors and food production.
Keywords: food production space-time pattern impact factors Shanxi province
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No.4589172848801139****
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