改进的灰色模型预测我国通用航空发展需求
首发时间:2015-11-19
摘要:运用改进的灰色系统理论对我国通用航空发展指标中的全行业年飞行小时数、通用航空企业数量进行预测,通过建立灰色预测模型,同时运用马尔可夫链理论对灰色预测模型进行改进,并且分别应用两种模型进行预测。结果表明,通过马尔可夫链理论修正的预测模型,预测精度得到了较大的改善,结果更为准确。预测结果说明我国通用航空发展迅速,增长潜力明显。
关键词: 航空运输 通航发展需求 灰色预测 改进的灰色预测 马尔可夫链 模型
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Improved Gray Model in the Development Needs Prediction of China's General Aviation
Abstract:Through using the improved gray system theory to predict general aviation industry development indicators that is the number of flight hours and the number of general aviation enterprises of China. Through the establishment of gray prediction model, and at the meantime, gray prediction model was improved by using of Markov chain theory, and both models were applied to predict. The results show that the prediction model by Markov chain theory correction, the prediction accuracy has been greatly improved, more accurate results. Forecast results indicate that the rapid development of China's general aviation and the growth potential is obvious.
Keywords: air transportation general aviation development needs gray forecast improved gray prediction Markov Chain model
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