Maritime Silk short-term impact on China's economic development

• 1、North China University of Technology, College of Science,Hebei, Tangshan 063009
• 2、North China University of Technology Mathematical Modeling Innovation Studio,Hebei Tangshan 063009

Abstract：In this paper,21st Century "Marine Silk Road" is to promote the new round of opening up along the major strategic promote the common development of countries, under the pattern of political and economic background, the paper choose the logistics industry and China's logistics industry climate index (LPI) to indicators, combined with domestic GDP, the total import and export volume of trade, the industrial added value, CPI index to establish the estimated vector autoregression model (VAR), the first sequence of its variable stationary test, carried Grand causality test, then get VAR Model equation, in the case of inverse characteristic root root AR meet less than 1, this estimation equation impulse response function and variance decomposition structural analysis, and the following conclusions: In the short term, GDP and total import and export trade because of LPI index fluctuation minor disturbance growth rate slowed, but then get a corresponding increase, the magnitude of the increase, so that China's rapid economic development has been made; CPI index and industrial added value will react immediately, rapid growth, people's living standards have improve stability. Visible, the Maritime Silk Road development, rapid and stable development of China's economy and people's living standards improve by leaps and bounds has a huge role in promoting.

Keywords： Chinese logistics industry prosperity index Vector autoregression Impulse response functiont Variance decomposition