Circulatory System Disease's Relationship with Temperature and Its Forecasting Model in Nanjing City

• 1、College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000
• 2、Unit 61,No.94783 of People's liberation Army(PLA),Changxing 313111

Abstract：[Objective] To estimate the relationship between circulatory system disease and temperature, and establish its forecasting model. [Methods] Using the death data and corresponding period meteorological data during 2004?2010 in Nanjing City, Time sequence distribution, the annual variation , seasonal variation and inter-annual variation of deaths from the circulatory system diseases was analyzed, and the relationships between the corresponding and lag period of circulatory system diseases and meteorological factors was studied, the forecast models of circulatory system disease deaths in Nanjing City was established using SPSS software. [Results] (1)Highest temperature distribution looked like a inverted 'V' and circulatory system diseases distribution looked like an 'U' in a typical year in Nanjing City, while the distribution of circulatory system diseases were in an anti-phase relation with temperature(average temperature, highest temperature, lowest temperature); Circulatory system disease deaths seasonal change is 'J' type, the most in winter, spring, summer at least; Inter-annual variability of circulatory system disease deaths is on the rise as a whole; And it demonstrated that deaths during the winter half year were more than the summer half year.(2)Meteorological factors significantly associated with circulatory system disease, will continue to affect the circulatory system disease, and the impact on the disease has a certain lag. (3) In terms of age, temperature and circulatory disease death has stronger correlations in More than 60 years of age; in terms of gender, temperature and circulatory disease death has stronger correlations in men.(4)The accuracy of established forecast model reached 71.92%. [Conclusion] Temperature were in an anti-phase relation with circulatory system diseases, presented a cyclical and rising trend; The age and gender of circulatory system disease deaths existed certain differences; Established forecast model can well simulate the change trend of circulation system disease deaths.

Keywords： Applied Meteorology Circulatory System Disease Temperature Forecasting Model