基于概率密度演化的航空发动机转子盘多变量概率失效风险分析
首发时间:2017-01-26
摘要:相较于传统的安全寿命法,基于概率断裂力学的概率失效风险分析能够考虑材料的初始加工缺陷、应力及寿命分散性等随机性因素,通过计算发动机设计寿命内的失效概率来对其进行失效风险评估。本文主要针对航空发动机转子盘结构,提出了一种基于概率密度演化的多变量概率失效风险分析方法。该方法的计算效率远高于相同精度下的传统蒙特卡洛模拟法,并通过AC33.14所提供的校准算例进行了合理性验证。
关键词: 失效概率,概率密度演化,积分法,多变量
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A Porbability Density Evolution based Multivariable Probabilistic Failure Risk Analysis for Aero-engine Rotor Disks
Abstract:Compared with the traditional Safe-Life method, the probabilistic fracture mechanics based probabilistic failure risk analysis can take into account of the stochastic factors, such as initial machining defects, stress and life-span dispersion of the material, and evaluate the engine's failure risk by calculating the probability of failure during in the engine's design life. In this paper, a multivariable probability failure risk analysis method based on probability density evolution is proposed for the assessment of aero-engine rotor disks. The computational efficiency of this method is much higher than that of traditional Monte Carlo simulation under the same precision, and it is verified by the calibration test provided by AC33.14.
Keywords: probability of failure, probability density evolution, integral algorithm, Multivariable
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No.4717525118035614****
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基于概率密度演化的航空发动机转子盘多变量概率失效风险分析
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