Research on Decision Analysis in Dual-channel Supply Chain with a Risk-averse Supplier under Demand Disruption

• 1、College of Manangement and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072

Abstract：In this paper, a dual-channel supply chain is considered consisting of a risk-averse supplier and a risk-neutral buyer under demand disruption. Through using CVaR method to evaluate supplier's utility, the Nash model is established under the condition that the supply chain players own the equal bargaining power. We figure out the equilibrium of product price, order quantity and wholesale price. When market demand increases due to demand disruption, optimal price increases as supplier becomes more risk-averse, and the portion of the supplier's profit compared with the entitle profit of the supply chain increases. Although this portion decreases slowly when supplier is more risk-averse, it is always higher than 50%. When market demand decreases due to demand disruption, optimal price decreases as supplier becomes more risk-averse, and the portion of the supplier's profit compared with the entitle profit of the supply chain decreases. Although this portion increases sharply when supplier is more risk-averse, it is always lower than 50%. Demand disruption leads to a higher profit fluctuation for supplier than buyer.

Keywords： dual- channel supply chain risk aversion demand disruption CVaR method