基于点评信息挖掘重复购买行为动力学
首发时间:2017-11-22
摘要:基于海量用户评论的数据统计,给出评论时间间隔分布的实证研究,从动力学角度来分析人们重复购买行为,实证数据显示用户连续两次消费间的时间间隔服从幂律分布。尽管个体间的消费习惯和喜好各不相同,但从群体上来看,重复购买行为均显示出类似的动力学模式:长时间的静默和短期的高频爆发,并且这两种模式一直循环交替出现。根据这种行为模式,我们提出了一个自适应动力学模型,该模型可以生成幂指数可变的幂律形式的时间间隔分布,与实证结果相吻合。
关键词: 人类动力学 重复购买 自适应模型 可调幂指数 幂律分布
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Human dynamics in repurchase behavior based on comments mining
Abstract:Hundreds of thousands of individual deals and comments are analyzed to ask: what kinds of patterns appear in their repurchase process? Our results suggest that, in the empirical description, the intervals between two consecutive purchases obey a power-law distribution. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences, shoppers\' repurchase behavior show some similar patterns, called long-scale quiet and short-scale emergence, and the alternating appearance of them form an endless chain in repurchase. In agreement with the empirical results, these short-scale and long-scale patterns suggest an adaptive model with alterable exponents complying with a power-law distribution. And it also implies that each user behaves his own intrinsic pattern such as unique repurchase intensity and silence-emergence cycle, which contributes to customer life-time value from the new view of dynamics and repurchase cycles.
Keywords: Human dynamic Repurchase Adaptive model Alterable exponent Power-law distribution
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