农村劳动力转移对我国农业机械化的影响
首发时间:2018-02-12
摘要:基于 1985 ~ 2012 年时间序列数据,综合采用协整分析、误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果关系检验等计量技术,考察了农村劳动力转移与我国农业机械化水平之间的相关关系。实证检验结果显示: 农村劳动力转移与农业机械化水平之间存在长期均衡关系,农村劳动力转移对农业机械化水平的提高具有显着正向影响; 农业机械化水平的短期变动主要受前一时期非均衡程度的影响,当农业机械化水平短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将以0.8033的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回至均衡状态; 农村劳动力转移与农业机械化水平之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,即农村劳动力转移是我国农业机械化水平变化的格兰杰原因,可以用农村劳动力转移来解释农业机械化水平的变化。
关键词: 农业经济管理;农村劳动力转移; 农业机械化; 格兰杰因果检验
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The influence of rural labor transfer on Agricultural Mechanization in China
Abstract:Based on time series data from 1985 to 2012, using cointegration analysis and error correction model and granger causality test measurement technology, examines the relationship between the rural labor transfer and agricultural mechanization level in our country. The empirical results show that the rural labor transfer and agricultural mechanization level, there is a long-term equilibrium between rural labor transfer and agricultural mechanization level, and the transfer of rural labor force has significant positive influence on the improvement of agricultural mechanization level; Agricultural mechanization level of short-term changes mainly influenced by unbalanced degree before one period, when the short-term fluctuations deviating from the long-term equilibrium level of agricultural mechanization, with 0.8033 adjustments will be unbalanced state back to equilibrium; Rural labor transfer and agricultural mechanization level, there is a one-way granger causality relation between the rural labor force transfer is the granger cause of the change of the agricultural mechanization level, can be explained by rural labor transfer of agricultural mechanization level changes.
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