“一带一路”国家贸易网络结构特征演化及影响因素分析
首发时间:2018-04-12
摘要:基于"一带一路"沿线65个国家2000-2015年双边贸易数据,利用复杂网络分析方法,构建"一带一路"国家贸易依赖度网络,分析了网络的结构特征及影响因素。研究发现:(1)"一带一路"贸易依赖度网络并不表现为"小世界网络",整体网络规模增长了35.13%,但整体贸易密度并不高,网络仍然较稀疏;(2)动态来看,中国、俄罗斯、印度和土耳其处于贸易网络的中心地位,我国在贸易关系中主要充当进口者角色;(3)人口规模差异、拥有共同语言、拥有共同殖民关系、陆地接壤对"一带一路"国家贸易依赖关系的形成存在显著的正向影响,地理距离、经济水平差异和贸易便利化水平差异对贸易依赖网络的影响显著为负,经济水平和贸易便利化水平相似的国家更倾向形成长期的贸易依赖关系,而在无权网络中为正向影响。
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The Research of the Structural Properties and the Motives of the
Abstract:Based on the bilateral trade data of 65 countries among the "One Belt One Road" from 2000 to 2015, the paper introduces a complex network analysis method and builds the "One Belt One Road" dependence network. Using Ucinet software to analyze the characteristics of trade networks and the factors affecting the trade network. The study found that (1) the "One Belt One Road" trade network does not exhibit the characteristics of a "small world" The overall network size has increased by 35.13%. However, the overall trade density is not high and the network is still sparse. (2) China, Turkey, Russia and India are the core nation of the One Belt One Road trade network and China acts as an "importer" in One Belt One Road trade network. (3) the trade network were positively correlated with Population matrix, Common language matrix, Colonial matrix and the contiguity matrix while negatively correlated with Geographic distance, GDP matrix and Facilitate matrix. Countries with similar levels of economic and trade facilitation are more likely to develop long-term trade dependencies. While having positive influence in an unauthorized network.
Keywords: One Belt One Road Complex Network Small world network QAP Regression
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“一带一路”国家贸易网络结构特征演化及影响因素分析
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