某省青少年吸毒人群规模估计
首发时间:2018-04-20
摘要: 2015年我国政府启动"6.27"青少年毒品预防工程,以学校为阵地,主针对10-25岁青少年人群构建毒品防控体系,力争降低青少年人群新滋生的吸毒人数。了解和掌握我国青少年吸毒人群规模,是各级政府制定相关预防措施的基本参考依据。本研究基于西部某省动态管控系统登记在册的青少年吸毒人群数据,利用捕获-再捕获(C-R)方法,评估该省青少年毒品使用人群规模和显隐比。研究结果提示,截止到2016年底,该省有14,826名10-25岁登记在册的青少年毒品使用人员,而C-R评估该省10-25岁青少年毒品使用人群大约为74,248人,即大约有59,422使用人群尚未被发现,即该省10-25岁青少年毒品使用人群的显隐比约为1:4。
关键词: 青少年毒品预防工程 吸毒人群规模估计 捕获-再捕获法(C-R)
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A young drug addicts population size estimation
Abstract:In 2015, our government launched the "6.27" youth drug prevention project, taking the school as the position, the main target of the 10-25 year old people to build drug control system, and strive to reduce the number of young people to reduce the number of new drug addicts. To understand and master the scale of youth addicts in China is the basic reference for governments at all levels to formulate relevant preventive measures. Based on the data of young drug addicts registered in a dynamic management control system in a province of Western China, the scale and hidden ratio of the population in the province were evaluated by the capture and recapture (C-R) method. The results suggest that by the end of 2016, there were 14826 registered teenage drug users in the province at the end of 2016, while C-R assessed the population of 10-25 year olds in the province for about 74248 people, that is, about 59422 of the population had not been found, that is, about 1 of the 10-25 year old drug use population in the province was about 1 : 4.
Keywords: Adolescent drug prevention project drug users scale estimation capture recapture method (C-R)
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