生态效益评价与情景模拟相结合的空间管理决策优化--以三峡库区为例

刘明皓; 冯源; 袁敏; 李玉婷

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Integrating Ecological Effects Assessment and Scenario-Based Simulation to Optimize Spatial Management Decisions: a Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area

首发时间：2018-05-21

LIU Minghao ^{1
2}
LIU Minghao(1970.11--),male,doctor,professor,Main research:urban dynamic simulation
FENG Yuan
FENG Yuan(1993.02-),male,master graduate student,Main research:urban dynamic simulation
YUAN Min LI Yuting

1、School of Computer Science and Technology, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China
2、Spatial Information System Research Center, Chongqing, 400065, China

Abstract：It is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of land by revealing the spatial temporal evolution law of land use and land cover change (LUCC), and identifying the ecological security. Three different development scenarios (low speed development, inertia development, rapid development) of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area（TGR）are designed based on the dynamic change model of urban and rural land use by using DYNA-CLUE software to simulate the spatial distribution pattern of land use in TGR, along with the human affect index (HAI), ecological risk index (ERI) and ecosystem service value (ESV) are used to assess the ecological effects of the different development scenarios. Results shows that, (1) the ROC test values of the logistic regression model between driving factors and grassland, cultivated land, shrub land, forest land, wetland, water body and artificial surface respectively were 0.61, 0.647, 0.819, 0.987, 0.777, 0.935, 0.927; (2) the land use distribution was simulated from 2000 to 2010, and the model validation shows that the total kappa reaches 79%, comparing the simulation results with the land use status in 2010;（3）From the ecological effect evaluation, the scenarioⅠis the best, the scenarioⅡ is the worst, and the scenario III is between the scenarioⅠand the scenarioⅡ;（4）from the perspective of time , ecological risk presents a gradual shift trend of from low to medium and high risk with the passage of time; from the perspective of space, relatively strong ecological risk areas are mainly concentrated in the riparian zone along the Yangtze River west of Wanzhou, while the extremely strong ecological risk area are mainly concentrated in the urbanized area of Chongqing metropolitan area.

keywords： computer technology DYNA-CLUE Three Gorges Reservoir Area

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生态效益评价与情景模拟相结合的空间管理决策优化--以三峡库区为例

刘明皓 ^{1
2}
LIU Minghao(1970.11--),male,doctor,professor,Main research:urban dynamic simulation
冯源 ^{1
2}
FENG Yuan(1993.02-),male,master graduate student,Main research:urban dynamic simulation
袁敏 ¹ 李玉婷 ¹

1、重庆邮电大学计算机科学与技术学院，重庆，400065
2、空间信息系统研究中心，重庆，400065

摘要：揭示土地利用覆被变化时空演变规律，辨识生态安全，对促进土地可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。在借助DYNA-CLUE软件建立城乡用地动态变化模型基础上，设计了三种不同的发展情景（低速发展，惯性发展，高速发展）对三峡库区目标年的土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟，并分别从生态要素、人文因素、生态安全和价值形态四方面对各情景进行生态效应评估。研究结果显示，（1）驱动因子与草地、耕地、灌丛地、林地、湿地、水体、人工表面构建的Logistic回归模型，其ROC检验值分别是0.61，0.777，0.647，0.819，0.987，0.935，0.927；以2000年为基期模拟2010年用地分布，通过与2010年用地现状对比进行模型模拟验证显示总Kappa达到79%。（2）生态效应评估多项指标显示，目标年（2020）三峡库区依据情景Ⅰ的模拟方案生态效应最优，依据情景Ⅱ的模拟方案的生态效应最差，依据情景III的模拟方案生态效益介于情景Ⅰ和情景Ⅱ之间。（3）根据风险评估结果显示，随着时间推移，任何一种情形下，三峡库区的低风险的面积在逐渐减小，中高风险的面积在逐渐增大，生态风险有从低风险向高风险转移的趋势；从空间上看，强度生态风险区主要集中在研究区上中游，特别是重庆市主城区一带为极高生态风险区。

关键词：计算机技术 DYNA-CLUE 三峡库区

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LIU Minghao,FENG Yuan,YUAN Min,et al. Integrating Ecological Effects Assessment and Scenario-Based Simulation to Optimize Spatial Management Decisions: a Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area[EB/OL]. Beijing:Sciencepaper Online[2018-05-21]. https://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201805-186.

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论文编号	201805-186
论文题目	生态效益评价与情景模拟相结合的空间管理决策优化--以三峡库区为例
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