Infrastructure,Preferential Trade Arrangement and Trade:"The Belt and Road" countries

• 1、Economy School,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510000

Abstract：Trade cost refers to all kinds of costs from commodity production to consumers, reducing trade cost, including transportation cost, information cost, money exchange cost, policy barriers, language barriers cost, contract association and performance cost, legal cost and sales cost, has been proved that it can significantly promote trade flows. In addition, the physical costs (including transportation, information, communication and other costs) and policy costs (policy barriers, contract association, etc.) have also been proved to play an indispensable role. This article starts from the perspective of trade cost reduction and selects the "The Belt and Road" countries as a sample, using the panel data of 2002-2016 years, establishing an expanded gravity model, considering both the physical cost and policy cost of infrastructure and preferential trade arrangements factors to research the influence of export goods trade between countries. Through empirical analysis, there are the following conclusions: (1) infrastructure and preferential trade arrangements both have a significant effect to the export trade of goods; (2) effects of infrastructure interconnection on bilateral trade flows depends more on infrastructure in the relatively backward countries; (3) the signing of the two countries\' free trade agreements has a greater role in promoting goods trade flows than the multi countries\' free trade agreements, and the signing of the two countries\' trade agreements and the signing of the multi countries\' free trade agreements has a certain inhibitory effect on the bilateral trade; and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.

Keywords： Infrastructure Preferential Trade Arrangement The Belt and Road Trade Flow