中国雾霾污染的空间分布特征及影响因素探究
首发时间:2018-05-30
摘要:在我国工业化进程和城镇化高速发展的同时,雾霾污染问题也开始呈现出了集中性爆发、影响范围广、出现频率高、治理难度大等特点。本文基于2017年1月-2018年2月中国284个地级以上城市的月均AQI数据,首先,对我国的雾霾污染的区域分布特征及其季节性变化特征进行可视化描述;其次,采用莫兰指数和LISA图对我国雾霾污染的空间集聚特征进行全局和局域分析;最后在此基础上建立空间计量模型对影响雾霾污染的主要社会经济因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:①我国雾霾污染的季节性特征明显,冬季污染最为严重且波及范围广,夏、秋季节空气质量较好;②雾霾污染存在显著的空间正相关性,全国范围来看,西南地区和东部沿海地区常呈现显著的低-低聚集,京津冀地区和中部地区常呈现显著的高-高聚集。③SLM、SEM和SDM回归结果显示,我国雾霾污染与经济增长的关系与EKC假说在一定程度上相符,人口的快速集聚、第二产业畸高的产业结构、交通拥挤强度、北方城市冬季供暖均在一定程度上促使了雾霾污染加剧。因此,从城市内部来看,治霾政策应以促进产业结构转型升级、鼓励绿色出行等方式为主,城市外部应以城市间区域联防联控为主,从而缓解和改善大气环境。
关键词: 雾霾污染 AQI EKC曲线 空间杜宾模型 季节性动态演变。
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Spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of fog and haze pollution in China
Abstract:In the process of industrialization and urbanization in China, the haze pollution problem has concentrated outbreaks, a wide range of impacts, high frequency occurrence, and difficult governance. This paper is based on AQI data from 336 cities in China from January 2017 to February 2018.Firstly, the regional distribution characteristics and seasonal variation characteristics of haze pollution in China are visualized.Secondly, we use the Moran index and LISA diagram to analyze the spatial clustering characteristics of haze pollution in China.Finally, we set up a spatial econometric model to empirically analyze the main socio-economic factors that affect haze pollution.The results showed that: the seasonal characteristics of haze pollution in China are obvious. The pollution is the most serious in winter and wide range, and the air quality is better in summer and autumn. There is a significant spatial correlation between haze pollution. From the national perspective, southwest and eastern coastal areas often show significant low-low aggregation. Beijing, Tianjin and central regions often show significant high-high aggregation.The results of SLM, SEM and SDM regression showed that the relationship between haze pollution and economic growth in China coincide with the EKC hypothesis. The rapid agglomeration of the population, the irrational industrial structure of the second industry, the intensity of traffic congestion, and the heating of the northern cities in winter have made the fog and haze pollution aggravating.Therefore, from the point of view of the city, haze control policy should mainly focus on promoting transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, and encouraging green travel. The outer part of cities should mainly focus on Inter-regional joint prevention and control, so as to alleviate and improve the atmospheric environment.
Keywords: Fog and Haze Pollution AQI EKC Spatial Durbin Model seasonal dynamic evolution.
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