城市住房价格与经济增长
首发时间:2018-06-13
摘要:城市房地产价格在全国范围内不同程度上涨,这种上涨对经济增长产生了负面影响。首先,建立一个含土地的新古典增长模型解释这说明,房价相对于总产出的过快增长会阻碍总产出的增长。其次,通过对2000-2010年全国354个城市房价和国内生产总值增长率面板数据的分析研究,固定效应模型表明,房价占人均GDP比重上升1%,经济增长速度会下降0.3%。在稳健性检验中,首先将当期的房价控制变量替换为三期房价均值,检验长期房价对经济增长影响;其次,将房价的滞后一期作为控制变量,对动态面板使用GMM方法进行回归,最后使用反事实的方法,使用房价人均GDP比重对滞后期的经济增长率作回归,发现结果是不显著的,证明房价只对之后的经济增长率产生影响。这些稳健性回归结果证实了城市房价上升会阻碍经济增长的结论。
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City Housing Price and Economic Growth
Abstract:Housing price increased across most big cities which negatively affected the economic growth. First, a neoclassical model with land was built to illustrate that the excessively rapid growth of housing price compared to the output growth will hinder the economic growth. The panel data included housing price, gross domestic product and other aggregate variables from 354 cities across the entire country for 2000-2010. Fixed effect model states that the ratio between housing price and GDP per capita increased by 1% will reduce the growth rate by 0.3%. In order to check the robustness of the results, lag housing price was controlled to study the long term effect and GMM method was used to regress the dynamic model. In addition, counterfactual method was applied to eliminate the possibility that housing price may affect the previous economic growth. Finally, all the results are consistent with the main finding.
Keywords: Housing price economic growth GDP growth rate
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