Study on the effects of drought about agriculture in Gansu province based on PCA

• 1、Mathematics and Statistic School, Central China Normal University, Wu Han 430079

Abstract：In this paper, a study on the effects of drought about growing foods in Gansu province will be done. Gansu province is located in the intersection of the three major Highlands which is the Loess Plateau, the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the Inner Mongolia plateau. Although the province has a large area of arable land, its grain output is low and unstable due to the scarcity of rainfall and frequent drought. This shows that drought has become a major factor affecting grain production in Gansu province. Nowadays, how to minimize the impact of drought on Grain Yield and to develop modern agriculture with the advantage of rich cultivated land in Gansu mountain area is a realistic problem in the region. Therefore, this article will firstly use the precipitation anomaly percentage standard of Gansu region and the Z index grading standard of northwest region to measure drought degree and then use data fitting to calculate the drought cycle and predict the drought degree in the next few years. Finally it will use principal component analysis to measure which crops are affected most by the drought, so as to give a reasonable suggestion to the grain cultivation strategy of Gansu in the next few years.Under this premise, through reasonable analysis and validation, we get the following conclusion:the period of great drought in gansu is seven years, and the crop which is most affected by drought is sugarbeet. Therefore,Gansu should reduce the production of sugar beets and plant other crops every seven years.

Keywords： applied mathematics principal component analysis drought period agriculture