Research on the Default Risk of Online P2P Lending Based on Survival Analysis

• 1、School of Management, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430081, China

Abstract：In recent years, the development of the online P2P lending platform is growing rapidly, but the potential risks behind it are not negligible, especially the risk of borrower\'s default. Research on the factors affecting the risk of the borrower\'s default is conducive to the P2P platform and investors to reasonably avoid risks. This article uses the survival analysis model to conduct an empirical study on the Lending Club loan data. The results show that the borrowing term, annual income, and revolving line utilization are protection factors. They reduce the possibility of a loan default. The interest rate, credit grade,the monthly repayment amount, the debt-to-income ratio, and the number of undocumented bad records are risk factors. They increase the possibility of a loan default. There is no significant relationship between the four variables:borrowing amount, working years, housing ownership and the number of overdue debts over 30 days in the past two years, and the probability of default of the loan. Finally, this paper proposes suggestions for the P2P network lending platform and investors.

Keywords： online P2P lending default risk survival analysis cox proportional hazards model