极端气候变化对福建省水稻产量的影响
首发时间:2018-07-04
摘要:全球气候变化已给许多国家的粮食生产带来了严重影响。应用5年线性滑动平均方法计算水稻气象产量,基于世界气象组织的气候变化和气候监测计划联合工作组(WMO-CCL/CLIVAR)提出的气候极值指标,用灰色关联度分析了极端气候变化对福建省水稻产量的影响。研究结果表明,(1)气候因子对福建省水稻产量的影响以减产为主。(2)平均气候因子、极端气候因子对水对闽西北单季稻区水稻产量的影响大于闽东南双季稻区。(3)平均气候因子中,气温对福建水稻产量的影响最大,降水影响次之,风速影响较小。(4)极端气候因子中,与干旱相关的因子对福建省水稻产量的影响较大。研究结果可为福建省粮食安全适应性对策的制定提供依据。
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The effects of extreme climate change on rice yield in Fujian Province
Abstract:Global climate change has had a severe impact on food production in many countries. The 5-year linear moving average method is used to calculate the meteorological yield of rice. Based on the climatic extremum index proposed by the Joint working Group on Climate change and Climate Monitoring Program (WMO-CCL/CLIVAR) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), The effect of extreme climate change on rice yield in Fujian Province was analyzed by grey correlation degree. The results showed that: (1) the effect of climatic factors on the yield of rice in Fujian Province was mainly reduced. (2) the average climatic factor and extreme climatic factor had more influence on the yield of rice in the single-cropping rice region of northwest Fujian than in the double-cropping rice region of southeastern Fujian. Among the mean climatic factors, temperature had the greatest effect on rice yield in Fujian, precipitation had the second, and wind speed had little effect. (4) among the extreme climatic factors, drought related factors had a great effect on rice yield in Fujian Province. The results can provide the basis for the assessment of extreme climate impacts and the formulation of adaptive countermeasures.
Keywords: Climatology Extreme climate change rice yield
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