基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的用地变化动态模拟
首发时间:2018-08-01
摘要:实现京津冀协同发展是我国重大的国家发展战略,具有重要意义。本文以京津冀地区为例,基于2000、2010年两期土地利用数据,构建Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型,结合自然、社会、政策约束等驱动因素对2020年和2030年京津冀的用地变化格局进行模拟预测。研究结果表明:在自然发展模式下,2010-2030年耕地、林地面积明显减少,人造地表面积增长迅速。在可持续发展模式下,2010-2030年间,耕地、林地面积依然有所减少,但减少量远小于自然发展模式情景;受政策约束条件的影响,人造地表的面积增长速度明显降低。本究可为京津冀地区的土地规划、管理和决策提供参考,对保护和改善生态环境具有指导意义。
关键词: 京津冀 Logistic-CA-Markov 动态演变 情景模拟 土地利用
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Dynamic Simulation of Land use change Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Model
Abstract:Achieving coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei is a major national development strategy of our country and is of great. This paper takes Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example, based on the land use data of 2000 and 2010, a Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model is constructed to simulate and predict the land use pattern in 2020 and 2030 with the combination of natural, social and policy constraints. The results show that under the natural development model, the area of woodland decreases obviously and the area of artificial surface increases rapidly from 2010 to 2030. Sustainable development model 2010-203 During the past two decades, the area of cultivated land and woodland is still decreasing, but the amount of decrease is much smaller than that of natural development model, and the growth rate of artificial surface area is obviously decreased under the influence of policy constraints. This study can provide reference for land planning, management and decision making in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and has guiding significance for protecting and improving ecological environment.
Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Logistic-CA-Markov Dynamic evolution Scenario simulation Land use
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