关于消费和投资对经济增长的影响研究以及国际比较
首发时间:2018-08-29
摘要:文章选取国内生产总值(GDP)、最终消费(FC)和全社会固定资产投资(I)这三个能反映一国经济增长的指标1980-2016年的年度数据,先建立协整回归方程来反映影响我国经济发展的三个变量的长期均衡关系,继而通过建立误差修正模型分析中国经济发展短期波动影响,并运用脉冲响应以及方差分解进行动态效应分析。研究结果表明:短期来说,投资对经济增长存在较为明显的促进作用,而对于长期而言,消费则具备持久拉动经济增长的作用。文章最后引入钱纳里"标准模型",在国际中就投资和消费现状与不同收入梯度国家和地区进行纵向比较,并与美日印港这四个代表性的国家或地区横向比较分析得出,我国目前存在投资率过高而消费率偏低的问题,目前适合我国的投资率在30%-35%之间,消费率在60%-65%之间,经济能保持既快又好的发展。
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Research on the impact of consumption and investment on economic growth and international comparison
Abstract:The article selects the annual data of gross domestic product (GDP), final consumption (FC) and investment in fixed assets (I), which can reflect a country\'s economic growth from 1980 to 2016, and establishes a co-integration regression equation to reflect the long-term equilibrium relationship of the three variables that affect China\'s economic development, and then analyzes the short-term fluctuations of China\'s economic development by establishing an error correction model, and uses the impulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the dynamic effects. The results show that in the short run, investment has a significant role in promoting economic growth, while in the long run, consumption has a lasting effect on economic growth. Finally, the paper introduces the "standard model" of Chenery, compares the investment and consumption situation in different countries and regions with different income gradients, and compares it with the four representative countries or regions, namely, the United States, Japan, India and Hong Kong. At present, China has a problem of high investment rate and low consumption rate. At present, the investment rate suitable for China is between 30% and 35%, and the consumption rate is between 60% and 65%. The economy can maintain both rapid and good development.
Keywords: Consumption Investment Economic growth
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