基于CART-CA模型的用地变化多尺度模拟--以三峡库区为例
首发时间:2018-09-17
摘要:以三峡库区为例,构建基于CART-CA的用地变化模型,并检验多尺度下,建模方法差异及地类均衡性对模拟精度的影响。结果显示:在7类、5类、3类、2类四种分类方案下,最佳模拟尺度依次是300m,200m,800m和200m;相同分类方案下最佳模拟尺度不因采用的模型不同而不同;随着分辨率的降低,地类均衡度总体上呈上升的趋势;随着地类均衡度的升高,模拟精度降低。研究表明,CART-CA模型用于多用途土地利用格局变化的动态模拟时,模拟精度较高;用地变化模型在尺度上存在最佳分辨率;分类均衡性是产生用地动态模拟精度高低的重要原因,最佳模拟尺度会因分类的均衡度变化而导致不同。
关键词: 土地利用变化模拟 元胞自动机 分类回归树 多尺度 尺度效应
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Multi scale simulation of land use change based on CART-CA model - A case study of the Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir area
Abstract:Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example, the dynamic change model of land use based on CART-CA was constructed and tested. On this basis, multi-resolution and multi classification schemes of land use are designed to test the scale effect of land use dynamic models and the relationship between classification equilibrium and simulation accuracy. Based on the five resolution data of 200m, 300m, 500m, 800m, 1000m, and the 7, 5, 3 and 2 categories of land use classification schemes,CART-CA model are used to carry out simulation experiments respectively.It is found that the best simulation scale in the study area is 300m, 200m, 800m and 200m, which means that the highest accuracy of simulation will be obtained under this resolution, otherwise, the best simulation scale under the same classification scheme will not be different from the different models adopted; The results show that the resolution, the imbalance and the simulation accuracy have the following relation: with the decrease of the resolution, the equilibrium degree is on the rise, otherwise the simulation precision decreases with the increase of the equilibrium degree of the land use types.The research shows that CART-CA has superior performance which can be used for dynamic simulation of multi-purpose land use pattern change.The scale effect of the land dynamic change model is obvious, away from the best resolution, the simulation precision will be reduced correspondingly. Classification equilibrium is an important reason for the accuracy of land use dynamic simulation.
Keywords: Land use change simulation cellular automata classification and regression tree Multiresolution scaling effect
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基于CART-CA模型的用地变化多尺度模拟--以三峡库区为例
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