新能源消费占比变化对能源效率影响的研究
首发时间:2018-09-21
摘要:以煤炭、石油等传统化石能源为主要能源消费类型的能源消费结构,是我国在近些年来发展经济的同时造成环境污染,尤其是大气污染的主要原因。因此,注重环境保护、改变能源结构成为了“十三五”期间的重要任务。其中,发展新能源产业、提升新能源在能源结构中的占比是环境保护和产业升级的主要手段之一。在此指导下,新能源产业在近年来得到了快速发展,其在能源结构中的占比不断提高。值得注意的是,这种在中国新能源发展推动下的能源消费结构变化会促使能源效率的变动,使得我国能源效率发展进入新的阶段。由此,本文选取2002-2016年中国29个省际行政单位的面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数方法分析了中国新能源消费占比变化对能源效率的影响,得到了研究期内中国能源效率值的定量结果。同时,利用香农—维纳指数测量了由新能源消费占比变化带来的中国省际能源消费结构多样性与能源效率值之间的相关关系。研究得到了以下结论:(1)在2002-2009年度内,中国新能源消费占比的变化对能源效率产生了显著的负向影响,香农—维纳指数指数每提升一个单位,Malquist指数就下降0.72;在2010-2016年度内,中国新能源消费占比的变化对能源效率产生显著的正向影响,香农—维纳指数指数每提升一个单位,Malquist指数就上升0.14。(2)在2002-2016年度内,中国的能源效率整体上是小幅上升的,年平均上升0.1%;其中,技术效率水平年均上升2.2%而技术进步水平年均下降2.1%。(3)各类能源效率指标的区域化差异明显,东部地区效率最高,西部次之,中部最低。(4)长期来看,新能源消费占比的变化会逐渐促进能源效率的提升,达到经济和环境的双重收益。
关键词: 能源效率 能源消费结构 新能源 Malmquist指数 香农-维纳指数
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Research on the impact of changes in the proportion of new energy consumption on energy efficiency
Abstract:The main energy consumption structure is the traditional fossil energy, such as coal, oil and so on. It is the main cause of environmental pollution, especially air pollution, while developing economy in recent years. Therefore, paying attention to environmental protection and changing the energy structure has become an important task during the "13th Five-Year" period. Among them, the development of new energy industry, to enhance the proportion of new energy in the energy structure is one of the main means of environmental protection and industrial upgrading. Under this guidance, the new energy industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and its proportion in the energy structure has been increasing. It is worth noting that the change of energy consumption structure driven by the development of new energy in China will promote the change of energy efficiency and make the development of energy efficiency in China enter a new stage. Based on the Malmquist index method, this article analyzed the energy efficiency under different energy structures using the panel data of China’s 29 provincial administrative units during the period between 2002 and 2012.Furthermore, based on the Shannon Wiener index, the correlation between the energy structure diversity and energy efficiency in China is measured.It is proved that the change of energy structure has a significant impact on energy efficiency. Through measurement and analysis, the conclusions are given: The change of China's energy structure will significantly affect the size of energy efficiency, and in the 2003-2008 year, this effect is negative, and the impact is great. During the study period, the energy efficiency was reduced on the whole, as the result of the degeneration of technical progress index; The differences of the related efficiency indicators among different areas are still obvious. But the relative ranking has changed; In a short term, the changes in energy structure (refers to the development of clean energy and renewable energy) will not have a significant positive impact on energy efficiency. On the contrary, it will cause the decline in the overall efficiency because of the degeneration of scale efficiency and technical progress; In the long run, changes in China's energy structure will turn to increase its energy efficiency, and are expected to achieve both economic and environmental benefits.
Keywords: Energy Efficiency Energy Structure New Energy Malmquist Index Shannon Wiener Index
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