基于小波相关性去噪结合ARMA模型的故障率预测方法
首发时间:2018-10-08
摘要:针对电力设备故障率具有周期性、随机性和多变性等特点,提出小波相关性去噪算法与时间序列自回归滑动平均(ARMA)模型的电力设备故障率预测方法。将电力设备故障率数据进行小波相关性去噪,最大限度保留有效序列,把重构后的序列进行ARMA建模及预测,预测值与实际值进行比较。仿真结果表明,小波相关性去噪后的ARMA模型预测结果有较高的精度,实际故障率预测效果较好。
关键词: 应用数学 小波相关性去噪 ARMA模型 故障率预测 精确性
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Failure rate prediction method based on wavelet correlation denoising combined with ARMA model
Abstract:Aiming at the periodicity, randomness and variability of power equipment failure rate, a wavelet correlation denoising algorithm and a time series autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for power equipment failure rate prediction are proposed. The power equipment failure rate data is denoised by wavelet correlation, and the effective sequence is retained to the maximum. The reconstructed sequence is modeled and predicted by ARMA, and the predicted value is compared with the actual value. The simulation results show that the ARMA model with wavelet correlation denoising has higher accuracy and the actual failure rate prediction is better.
Keywords: AppliedMathematics Wavelet correlation denoising ARMA model Failure rate prediction Accuracy
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基于小波相关性去噪结合ARMA模型的故障率预测方法
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