上市公司退市风险预警研究
首发时间:2019-01-03
摘要:对上市公司的退市风险进行研究,有利于健全现行退巿机制、更加严格地对系统风险控制,并且对投资者和上市公司都有重要意义。2016年沪、深A股共有51家上市公司被ST,以此作为样本组,并以正常的上市公司作为匹配组,从偿债能力、成长能力、运营能力、盈利能力、现金流量等方面对其退市风险进行研究,通过主成分分析降维处理,再使用二分类Logistic回归分析法建立模型,得到结果利用上市公司第t-2年的已知财务指标来预测其第t年的财务状况,对经营不善的公司有预警作用,避免经营状况进一步恶化而面临退市风险。
关键词: Logistic回归 上市公司 风险预警机制
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Research on Risk Early Warning of Listed Company's Withdrawal
Abstract:It is important to study the risk of delisting of listed companies, which helps to improve the delisting mechanism of listed companies and control the system risks. It can also provide useful message for the securities market, investors and listed companies. In 2016, there were 51 ST companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen A - share markets. Logistic model is used to 51 ST companies, using their financial indicators (including debt solvency, growth ability, Operation Capability, profitability, and cash-flow) and compared with other 51 normal listed companies. This paper uses Principal component analysis to reduce dimension, and find that data from the previous two years and Logistic model has strong predictive ability. So that listed companies with financial distress can avoid the risk of delisting.
Keywords: Logistic model Listed company Risk early-warning mechanism
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