我国第三产业就业人数分析——基于改进的LASSO-GM(1,1)模型
首发时间:2019-01-25
摘要:我国第三产业就业人数的变化反映了第三产业的发展情况,而第三产业在国民经济中发挥着关键性的作用,它的发展对我国现在的经济体制的建立和完善有着重要的意义。本文基于改进初始条件的灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国2008-2020年第三产业就业人数进行了拟合预测,效果较好;并且基于LASSO模型对第三产业就业人数的影响因素进行了深入分析,发现我国第一、第二和第三产业就业人数结构发生了变化,总就业人数变化较小,而第三产业就业人数相对增加。
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Analysis of the employment of the tertiary industry -- Based on the improved LASSO-GM (1,1) model
Abstract:The change in the employment of the tertiary industry in China reflects the development of the tertiary industry, while the tertiary industry plays a key role in the national economy. Its development is of great significance to the establishment and improvement of China\'s current economic system. Based on the grey GM(1,1) model with improved initial conditions, this paper fits the forecast of the employment of the tertiary industry in China from 2008 to 2020, and the effect is good. Based on the LASSO model, the factors affecting the employment of the tertiary industry are carried out. In-depth analysis found that the structure of employment in the first, second and third industries in China has changed, the total employment has changed little, while the employment in the tertiary industry has increased relatively.
Keywords: tertiary industry fitting prediction influencing factors
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我国第三产业就业人数分析——基于改进的LASSO-GM(1,1)模型
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