使用TAR和VAR方法对郑州市AQI指数的仿真预测
首发时间:2019-02-25
摘要:随着我国环境污染问题的日益突出,人们对环境质量尤其是对环境空气质量状况的关注力度越来越大,如何有效的测量并预测环境空气质量对实施具体的空气污染治理措施的重要性不言而喻。本文通过RStudio软件建立TAR模型和VAR模型对郑州市2016年8月1日到2017年8月23日的AQI指标数值进行仿真预测,并分析其预测结果。结果表明,考虑了相关指标的滞后影响的VAR模型能更好地刻画AQI指标的变化趋势,预测精度要优于TAR模型,这对今后如何更有效预测AQI指标数值具有一定的参考意义。
关键词: 计量经济学 AQI指标 TAR模型 VAR模型 预测精度
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Simulation and Prediction of the AQI Index in Zhengzhou by TAR and VAR Method
Abstract:With the pollution problems in our country have become increasingly serious, people now pay more and more attention to the quality of the environment, especially to the air quality. And how to measure and forecast the air quality effectively is of great importance to the implementation of specific measure for air pollution control. In this paper, we try to build the TAR model and VAR model by RStudiosoftware, simulate and predict the AQI index values in Zhengzhou from August 1, 2016 to August 23, 2017. Then we analyze the predicted results. The results show that VAR model which considered the hysteresis effect of related indicators can describe the changing trend of AQI index better, so its prediction accuracy is better than that of TAR model. This has certain reference significance to predict AQI value accurately in the near future.
Keywords: Econometrics AQI index TAR model VAR model prediction accuracy
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