河北省晚播玉米的适应性与稳定性的模拟
首发时间:2019-03-18
摘要:模拟玉米生产的最晚播期及最适播期,提高玉米产量稳定性,为种植制度设计提供依据。设置6月10日、6月20日、6月30日、7月10日和7月20日5个播期,用APSIM软件模拟1986-2015年每年不同播期的生产情况。根据30年不同播期的产量结果显示,6月20日播种,产量最高平均值和中值分别为14896.14kg/ha、15343.65kg/ha,变异系数为20,低于9000kg/ha和11250kg/ha的产量概率都为7%,6月10日和6月20日在抽雄吐丝期遭遇极端天气危害的年份和天数概率分别为83.4%、41.4%和96.6%、45.7%,显著低于其他播期,6月30日以后播种玉米已经不能完成灌。6月20日播种玉米的气候适应性及产量稳定性最好,因此冬小麦-夏玉米一年两熟种植模式会获得较高产量,春玉米一熟制产量较低,除此之外还可以考虑双季玉米种植模式。
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Simulation of adaptability and Stability of late sowing maize in Hebei Province
Abstract:The best and the lated sowing timeof the corn production is simulated, and the yield stability of the corn is improved, and the basis for the design of the planting system is provided. Set on June 10, June 20, June 30, July 10 and July 20 5 sowing time, using APSIM software to simulate the production of different sowing time in 1986-2015. According to the results of the different sowing time of 30 years, the average yield and the mean value of the sowing on June 20 were 14896.14kg/ ha, 15343.65kg/ ha, the coefficient of variation was 20, the yield probability of less than 9000kg/ ha and 11250 kg/ ha was 7%. Therefore, the most suitable sowing time of the sowing stage is 83.4%, 41.4% and 96.6%, 45.7%, respectively. On June 10 and June 20, the probability of extreme weather hazards during the silking period was 83.4%, 41.4% and 96.6%, 45.7%, respectively, obviously lower than the other sowing date, and after June 30, the sowing of the corn can not be completed. The climate adaptability and the yield stability of the seeding corn on June 20 are the best, so the winter wheat-summer maize can obtain higher yield in the two-year and two-year planting mode, and the yield of the spring corn is low, In addition, it is also possible to consider a double-season corn planting mode.
Keywords: Maize yield sowing date APSIM simulation planting model
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